An Introductory Insight
East Africa has spent many years in turmoil and crisis. If we look back at the past 30 years, this region has lost its economy and political instability due to civil wars, droughts, and similar man-made and natural disasters. Because of this, the lives of innocent peoples are in danger. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) said in its recent report ‘‘in 2023, 97% of all political violence occurred in 50 countries’’ Most of these are caused by similar factors. Among these reasons; political rivalries, regional crises, and civil disputes are the main ones. The instability and conflicts in Africa, especially in East Africa, are almost all internal, and the causes of conflict and instability in the Horn are also mentioned as being caused by these 50 countries.
Indeed, whereas the probability of political disagreements turning into conflict has increased by 22 percent in the last 5 years, it can be said that the Horn of Africa also become a region where conflict, war, discord, and violence are hatched.
However, now such and the previous internal problems in the countries of the Horn threaten to create a big security threat in the Horn due to the strained relations between the neighboring countries. Especially if the already internal problems in the countries cross the border, it may lead to terrorist attacks in the region and piracy in the Red Sea and the surrounding area as a new threat.
However, what has emerged as a threat to the East African region is not only an internal problem among the countries of the Horn of Africa. However, the diplomatic relations between countries, especially the tense relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, tensions between Somaliland and Puntland with Somalia, which claim to be independent and are in the process of becoming a state, and Egypt’s desire to engage in this situation will drag The Horn from to the instability and conflict-prone form we have known before.
Before we look at how and how realistic such concerns are, let’s take a look at the idea of what is happening in East Africa right now.
The Beginning
Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding on January 1, 2024. The MoU was signed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi. The aim is to allow Ethiopia to use Somaliland’s Berbera port and to have a military base there, and to recognize Somaliland as a country for successful government organizations such as Ethiopian Airlines.
It is expected that Ethiopia, which is said to be the strongest of the East African countries due to its economy and military power as well as its historical wealth, will further strengthen its capabilities through the agreement. But for this, the country needs the agreement to be fulfilled. Especially since the country has been isolated for 30 years, from the Red Sea. The situation may provide an opportunity for Addis Ababa to join Red Sea politics again.
However, this kind of activity was not seen well in countries like Somalia. Somalia claims that its sovereignty has been violated because of this agreement, and said that if the agreement is implemented, the country may enter a direct conflict with Ethiopia. On the other hand, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in his speech on February 5, 2024, when he attended the Ethiopian Federal Parliamentary Assembly and explained the performance of his government for 6 months that Ethiopia has no desire to attack the sovereignty of any party, or to enter a conflict with the neighboring country of Somalia. And now the tension created by the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland seems to have subsided. The matter is covered and cooked like food in an oven, and what is happening in East Africa? It makes us ask the question, a big geopolitical change or something else? Let’s look at it together…
Why the Ethiopia and Somaliland MOU is ‘‘Controversial’’
With over 120 million citizens, Ethiopia believes that it needs a sea gate for its growing population and economy. The country handles up to 95 percent of its revenue and expenditure through the port of Djibouti. However, the Abiy Ahmed administration, which is currently leading the country, believes that Ethiopia’s growing population and economy are more likely to be a threat than an opportunity for the region.
The Ethiopian Government also believes that if the country’s growing population and economy are not properly managed/explored, the question may not even be present now, but it may trigger conflict, migration, and displacement in the region in the future. As a result, they can be heard explaining that the region is a victim in the repeated explanations they give to the members of the council regarding the Red Sea and the region. For this reason, owning the sea gate is the best solution for the growing needs of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian government has repeatedly stated this idea, but it has announced that it believes that the Ethiopian question should become a new chapter in connecting the region.
The Government of Somaliland regards itself as the successor state to British Somaliland. Since 1991, the territory has been governed by democratically elected governments that seek international recognition as the government of the Republic of Somaliland. However, Somaliland is not recognized by the United Nations or any other independent country. Rather, it is considered part of the Mogadishu state by the Somali government. For that reason, complaints have arisen in Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration that the Ethiopian agreement was implemented without the knowledge of the Somali government. As a result, if Ethiopia does not void the MoU, Somalia has announced through its president that it will use all options to uphold its sovereignty.
Here, the Ethiopian government says that it has not done any activity to endanger the sovereignty of Somalia. Ambassador Tibor P. Nagy, who has served as the ambassador of the Horn of Africa for more than 20 years, says that similar agreements have already been implemented by the governments of various countries. This is evidenced by the 2017 agreement between Somaliland and the United Arab Emirates to have a military base in Berbera port, as well as the UK and Russia engaging in similar activities. Ethiopia has done the same thing – Tibor P. Nagy.
Even so, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud went to Cairo the day after he saw the MOU and signed a military agreement, as if following the Ethiopian movement, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Rising Tensions in the Horn of Africa
In 2005, Somalia’s government was attacked by al-Shabaab, a terrorist group operating in the Horn of East Africa. At that time, the Somali government was in danger of collapsing. However, Ethiopia, a close neighbor of Somalia sent its soldiers to Mogadishu to free the Somali government from the existential threat.
Eleven years ago, when the UK and the Somali government held an international conference on Somalia in London, the then-president of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, appeared live on Al Jazeera TV. He said, “After 22 years, Somalia has moved out of the capital and joined the regions and districts of Somalia Force and AMISOM for the first time” to undertake significant work. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud also stated that the Ethiopian army was doing an excellent job in various regions of Somalia. This reflects a key partnership and trust-based relationship in the peace and security of the two neighboring countries. Indeed, tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers died, sacrificing their lives for the stability and peace of Somalis. Two years ago, Ethiopia started to transform the relationship between the two countries into an economic one, it even went so far as to send a delegation with the idea of a Green Legacy initiative.
However, following the Ethiopian government’s agreement with Somaliland, Somalia, claiming a violation of its sovereignty, immediately sought support from Egypt and signed military agreements. Some Somali officials also disrespected the Ethiopian military’s sacrifice, angering both the Ethiopian people and their government.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud went to Egypt immediately and signed a military agreement with Cairo. What makes this move unique is that Addis Ababa and Cairo are currently in a major crisis regarding the Renaissance Dam. For that reason, Egypt is bound to take any action or strategic action that will put pressure on Ethiopia.
Following the differences and disagreement between the two countries, Discussions were held twice under the mediation of Türkiye, so, that the disputes between the two countries could be resolved through dialogue. Although the talks are said to be promising on the Ethiopian side. But recent actions by the Somali government suggest otherwise.
The Unpredictable Geopolitical Landscape
East Africans have a saying: “There is no smoke without fire.” By this, they mean that there is always another reason behind things. In fact, before November 2023, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed his opinion that Ethiopia deserves access to the sea, there were already signs that the question of Ethiopia’s sea gate could be on the agenda. One of the most important signs is that Ethiopia has started to reorganize its former naval forces.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed initiated the movement to organize the Ethiopian Navy in 2019, five years ago. Starting from there Ethiopia was looking all around who can deal with a win-win approach, and here we are.
On the other hand, recently, 10,000 Egyptian troops have been deployed to Somalia. This movement by Egypt and Somalia, seen as a turning point following the fifth round of GERD negotiations, is perceived as aggressive by Ethiopians.
Miftah Mohamed, a researcher of African affairs at the Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs, notes that despite the disagreements between the two countries, he did not expect Egypt to deploy its troops so swiftly. The researcher, who states that such activities complicate the study of political science, also notes the unpredictability of human nature. Therefore, he argues that ‘‘Ethiopia should prepare’’ for the possibility of war.
Mulugeta Hailemariam, a political science lecturer at Wachemo University in Ethiopia, asserts that the tension in the Horn of Africa benefits neither side. He suggests that no country will gain from such a dispute, except for terrorist groups. That’s why he emphasizes that the Ethiopia and Somalia issues must be resolved through dialogue, highlighting the crucial role that other Horn of Africa and East African community members should play.
But Somalia and Egypt are planning military drills in a manner similar to that of Ethiopia, on the other hand, the Somaliland Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the Somaliland- Ethiopian MoU is finalized, and a formal legal agreement is imminent. Additionally, talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, previously mediated by Türkiye, have been extended indefinitely.
What Can IGAD and the AU Do to Ease Tensions?
IGAD and the African Union can play a major role in preventing the current relations between Ethiopia and Somalia from deteriorating. In particular, the two alliances are expected to play a major role in bringing the countries closer together and conducting discussions to ensure that African problems are explored with African solutions.
In the past, both IGAD and the African Union have been calling for the countries to discuss this issue. However, this call was not implemented by Türkiye. Perhaps, it can be said that such forms of the union and IGAD greatly undermine the strength of the institutions. Following the recent deployment of the Egyptian army in Somalia, Ethiopia has been heard saying that an Egyptian-like move is a threat to its national security. Such activities have sparked protests in various regions of Somalia. Somaliland also acted by closing the Egyptian cultural center and library in the country as the Egyptian army Mogadishu. This appearance is an indication that tensions in the horn will likely increase, so both IGAD and the African Union should fulfill their role adequately.
However, many sources close to IGAD have confirmed that they are monitoring the issue, especially since the Egyptian army is stationed in the area to prevent another crisis in the region. According to our sources, until IGAD receives a request from Somalia or Ethiopia, it is hard to de-escalate the tension until some request and readiness from both sides is visible.
However, this season’s message from the Horn of Africa seems to test the ability of regional institutions and the African Union to stabilize the environment and rebuild the faith of those living amidst the conflict.
About The Author
Tsegaye Wondwossen Bekele, is a board member and senior Fellow at the African Council on Foreign Relations. He is a Journalist, Global Media Executive, Editor in Chief at Addis Wata Television in Ethiopia
