Russia’s growing geopolitical ambitions in Africa clash with France’s supreme and strategic interests. For more than 10 years, Russia has been steadily gaining a foothold in West Africa, hitting hard French influence in the region. In this article, Jean Narcisse Djaha, PhD, Founding President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Council on Foreign Relations, explains why Russia is bent on challenging France geopolitically, politically, economically, and diplomatically in Africa.
In a nutshell
- Why Russia Wants France Out from Africa?
- What will happen to France’s hegemony in Africa a few years from now?
- What will be the global impact of Russia’s presence in Africa?
- What will be the economic impact of Russia’s presence in Africa?
Why such a struggle for influence in Africa?
There are several reasons why global powers are competing for influence and power in Africa. While some global powers are fighting for economic reasons, others are also fighting to build a geopolitical presence in Africa.
- Africa is the future of the world.
Africa is shaping the future of international relations in several ways possible. Africa has more than 60 percent of the world’s arable land. This is a massive opportunity for both global governments to build an economic presence capable of competing with rivals in Africa. This is what Russia has understood and is doing in West Africa. Africa has dynamic and innovative young people in every sector and walk of life. As the World Economic Forum noted, more than 60% of Africa’s population is under the age of 25, and by 2030, young Africans are expected to constitute 42% of global youth.
Africa is becoming the future of global trade. Africa is home to the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement or Area (AfCFTA), the world’s largest free trade area. Once fully implemented––a goal set for 2030––the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has the potential to be the World’s biggest free-trading bloc, with a market of around 1.3 billion people and a combined gross domestic product of $2.5 trillion.
Looking towards Africa’s bright economic future, there is no doubt that Russia will want to compete with countries like France and the United States of America to become a leading player both geopolitically and economically.
The days when Africa was not important to the world are gone. Africa is at the heart of enormous geopolitical, geo-economic, and geo-strategic stakes in the 21st century. Comprising fifty-four countries and the cradle of several civilizations, Africa alone represents a global diplomatic powerhouse and is the future of humanity.
- A new age of global geopolitics of high intensity has arrived
Geopolitically, formerly marginalized, the African continent has become a player in political, geopolitical, and commercial exchanges. Africa is now fully integrated into globalization and contemporary economic dynamics, to the point of becoming a new center of gravity for the challenges of our time. Africa now seems to have a growing say in the management of global affairs. There has indeed been a big shift in the regional geopolitical and strategic center of gravity towards Africa, essentially West Africa and, to a lesser extent, French West Africa. A continent of vast economic opportunities and political crises, Africa has become a major geopolitical player in international relations.
Long perceived as France’s zone of influence, West Africa and several parts of Africa are now contested geopolitical areas on a global scale. Russia, China, India, Russia, the United States, and many European nations are all vying for influence in Francophone West Africa.
Figure: Forces Present in Africa Source: Geopolitical Future
The continent has become a strategic competition ground among major powers such as France, America, Turkey, China, the United Kingdom, and many more. In West Africa alone, this competition is turning into high politics as it gains momentum every year. This, however, will complicate things for African governments who lack a clear vision of where they want their countries to go in the coming years. Like West Africa, the Horn of Africa’s important geopolitical and geostrategic position continues to attract several major foreign countries such as Russia.
Russia is leveraging France’s colonial history in Africa
The current hard geopolitical struggles between France and Russia in Africa over the past decade are products of France’s complex colonial legacy and Russia’s ambitions to become a prominent geopolitical and economic actor in West Africa
The French presence in Africa dates to the 17th century. In geopolitics, history matters. This is what Russia is trying to leverage in Africa. France has a complex colonial history in Africa, giving Russia a competing hedge over France in the new great power competition in Africa. France has historically been in Africa for several centuries. Like many former European colonial powers, France’s motivations for colonization included trade, religion, and political, economic, and cultural factors:
- Economic: find new economic development opportunities in new territories in Africa.
- Trade: The French established trading posts in North America for the fur trade and to export products like fish, rice, sugar, and furs.
- Mission civilisatrice: promoting the advancement of French civilization, cultural norms, and political ideals in colonized nations by colonial officials and Catholic missionaries.
French economic and political dominations in Africa have continued into the modern era. The French have maintained strong economic, diplomatic, and military ties with several African governments, especially in Africa and West Africa for the most part.
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, resurrected the country back in 2008 with the invasion of Georgia and later the military occupation of Crimea in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Russia’s involvement in Africa began in the mid-1950s as the continent became a battleground between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In the mid-1950s, Russia supported several nations by providing security guarantees and economic development opportunities to free themselves from Western domination.
Russia’s strategic decision to return to Africa has also affected France’s vital interests in several African economies, including those of West Africa. With zero colonial history, Russia uses France’s historical colonial data to position itself as a trusted partner, to identify and understand the key drivers affecting many African countries’ political and economic performance. This can help with strategic planning, decision-making, and optimization.
In West Africa, Russia has forged strong economic and security ties with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso while fighting for a more pronounced leadership in the region. History plays a significant role in the present and future.
What room is left for France in Africa?
While it is hard to predict what the future of France will be in Africa, many experts agree that the European power is in big trouble. Russia’s ongoing geopolitical struggles are already having spillover effects far beyond its original targets on France’s regional domination in Africa, as the power struggles intensify every day. Depending on the trajectory of the fight, one could expect the confrontation to continue. The struggle is devastating France’s foreign policy and roiling its economic and trade markets, creating a national security issue that is likely to affect lives in the years to come.
To achieve its goals, Russia is using all the instruments at its disposal, be they military, technological, informational, or economic. The ultimate goal of Russia’s foreign policy is to kick France out of key strategic areas in West Africa, with the fundamental interests of the vast economic opportunities at its heart.
These disruptions are already affecting French citizens. And the longer the struggle lasts, the more powerful and unpredictable the consequences may become.
Most importantly, Russia has understood that the forces that surround international trade are the real political and economic powers in every nation across the globe. Trade and geopolitics are deeply linked. It is no surprise that Russia is positioning itself as a future beneficiary of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. This is happening in Mali, Tchad, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Geopolitics paves the way for trade, international trade, and economic exchanges.
That is why Russia wants France out of Africa
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and not the official views of his organization.
Author The Author
Jean Narcisse Djaha, PhD is the Founding President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Council on Foreign Relations. He is guided by Romans 8:30” And those he predestined, he also called; those he called, he also justified; those he justified, he also glorified”.
